South Africa’s Exxaro Resources said on Thursday its coal exports could rise by up to 12% this year helped by improved freight rail performance, as energy supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict push coal prices higher.
Energy prices have jumped since the U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran began on February 28, following attacks on vital energy infrastructure and freight disruptions.
Exxaro said its coal exports could reach 8 million metric tons in 2026, up from 7.1 million tons last year, but warned the conflict posed a material threat to global energy security.
“Any prolonged or broader regional destabilisation would disrupt energy security and bulk shipping, tightening global oil and liquefied natural gas supply,” it said in a results statement.
“This would likely increase reliance on alternative fuels, supporting higher thermal coal demand and prices,” it added.
The benchmark price for South African coal exports, API4, has climbed to $118 per ton, from the $90-per-ton average realised by Exxaro in 2025.
Exxaro, which ships to India, Japan, Pakistan, Europe and Africa, recorded a 2% rise in exports in 2025, as South Africa’s freight rail performance continues to improve.
Miners including Exxaro have been helping state-owned logistics firm Transnet raise its minerals hauling capacity after years of cable theft and vandalism.
Exxaro said 2025 profit rose 8% as cost controls helped offset weaker coal prices. Headline earnings per share came in at 32.47 rand ($1.91), up from 30.16 rand a year earlier.
The diversified miner declared a final dividend of 10 rand per share, up 15% from the previous payout and taking total shareholder returns for the year to 6.3 billion rand.
($1 = 16.9595 rand)
