With Africa poised to become the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, policymakers and industry leaders are focused on a central challenge: how to translate rising demand into sustainable connectivity, competitiveness, and financial viability.
This question anchored deliberations at the two-day Airlines, Capital and Connectivity Forum convened in Nairobi on 25–26 February 2026 by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with the African Airlines Association (AFRAA).
Despite strong demand fundamentals, Africa’s aviation sector continues to face structural constraints, including high costs of capital, fragmented regulatory regimes, infrastructure gaps, and limited access to long-term financing. To address these challenges, the Bank is advancing the Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP), a continent-wide platform designed to modernise the aviation ecosystem and mobilise private, institutional, and concessional capital at scale. The programme seeks to align policy reform, innovative financing instruments, and project execution within a single, bankable framework.
The Forum brought together airline executives, transport ministers, regulators, investors, manufacturers, and development partners to explore how the IATP can accelerate coordinated delivery across the sector. Participants underscored aviation’s role as a strategic enabler of regional integration, trade facilitation, tourism, and economic diversification.
Opening the Forum, the Bank’s Director for Infrastructure and Urban Development, Mike Salawou, noted that while Africa’s aviation demand outlook ranks among the strongest globally, supply-side capacity and investment readiness have lagged. The IATP, he said, seeks to de-risk priority investments, support early pilot transactions, and restore confidence among commercial and institutional financiers.
From the industry’s perspective, AFRAA Secretary General Abderahmane Berthé highlighted the scale of the opportunity and the imbalance confronting the continent. “Africa represents nearly 18 percent of the global population but accounts for less than three percent of worldwide air traffic, reflecting structural and regulatory barriers rather than weak demand,” he said.
Remarks delivered on behalf of Kenya Airways described Africa as the largest structural aviation opportunity of the 21st century. Over the next two decades, one in four new global air travellers is expected to originate from Africa, driven by rapid urbanisation, a growing middle-income population, and a youthful demographic profile.
However, the industry’s financial performance remains constrained. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), African airlines are projected to generate net margins of only 1–2 percent, below the global average forecast of 3.9 percent in 2026. High fuel costs, heavy taxation, incomplete liberalisation and limited hub infrastructure continue to undermine profitability.
Connectivity remains a critical bottleneck. Intra-African traffic accounts for only about a quarter of total air travel, with many passengers required to transit outside the continent. Participants emphasised that full implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market is essential to unlock efficient intra-continental connectivity.
A keynote address delivered by Eric Ntagengerwa, Head of Transport and Mobility at the African Union Commission (AUC) on behalf of Lerato Dorothy Mataboge, Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy, framed aviation reform as an imperative for sovereignty, integration, and competitiveness. He observed that the Single African Air Transport Market is the designated African Union Theme for the Year 2027.
Discussions over two days focused on practical delivery, including strengthening airline bankability, advancing climate-aligned aviation, developing cargo and logistics, building skills, and deploying innovative risk-sharing mechanisms under the IATP. Country experiences from Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia illustrated how continental objectives can translate into coordinated national reforms and near-term investment opportunities.
Samuel Obafemi Bajomo, Senior Adviser to Nigeria’s aviation ministry, emphasised that forward-looking, pro-investment policy frameworks are critical to strengthening connectivity and unlocking Africa’s growth potential and positioning aviation as a catalyst for trade, tourism, and shared prosperity.
The Forum concluded with a clear message: Africa’s aviation demand is real, accelerating, and irreversible. The priority now is execution—aligning policy, capital and infrastructure to ensure aviation becomes a durable driver of inclusive growth and regional integration across the continent.
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).
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