South Africa is well positioned to supply maize to drought-stricken Kenya in the current marketing year, but policy constraints around genetically modified (GM) grain remain a key obstacle to meaningful trade flows.
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Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council’s Trade Research Unit, said South Africa still had exportable supplies available for the 2025/26 marketing year, which ends in April 2026.
“During the 2025/26 marketing year, South Africa is expected to export about 2,4 million tons of maize. Approximately 1,6 million tons had been exported as of February 2026, leaving roughly one million tons remaining for export. Therefore, Kenya can source some of its maize from South Africa, given its drought issues,” Nkunjana said.
Drought pressure in Kenya
The call for policy flexibility comes as Kenya faces significant production challenges. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, mentioned in his recent newsletter that Kenya’s grain-producing regions were experiencing drought conditions, with reports of crop failures likely to place financial strain on farmers and, in the coming months, on households.
For South Africa, the supply outlook remains supportive. Sihlobo indicated that roughly one million tons of maize were still available for export in the current marketing year, with the 2026/27 season also promising ample supplies.
However, he cautioned that about 80% of South Africa’s maize crop is genetically modified, a factor that complicates potential exports to Kenya due to that country’s prohibition on GM maize imports.
Trade history despite restrictions
Nkunjana further mentioned that, despite Kenya’s stance on GM maize, trade between the two countries has occurred in recent years, albeit in relatively small volumes.
“Although it would be difficult to purchase maize from South Africa due to Kenya’s ban on the importing of GM maize, South Africa has continued to provide Kenya with maize in recent years, mostly in small quantities. Kenya bought maize from South Africa between 2015 and 2025, with the biggest imports occurring in 2017 at 250 000t and in 2023 at 155 000t,” he said.
He added that this history suggests trade channels exist, but volumes remain constrained by policy.
Temporary policy adjustment
Both Nkunjana and Sihlobo point to Zimbabwe’s approach as a possible template. Zimbabwe allows the importation of GM maize for consumption and processing, but not for cultivation.
“Steps should be taken [in Kenya] to address imported GMOs, as is the situation in countries like Zimbabwe, such as importing for processing, given that Kenya has previously imported maize from South Africa,” Nkunjana said.
Sihlobo mentioned that, given potential supply constraints and rising consumer prices, Kenyan authorities could consider temporarily lifting the ban on GM maize imports for consumption while broader domestic policy discussions continue.
Zimbabwe is currently the largest importer of South African maize in the 2025/26 marketing year, accounting for roughly one-third of the 1,5 million tons exported since May 2025, according to Sihlobo’s newsletter.
Economic and diplomatic implications
Beyond immediate food security considerations, Nkunjana said easing restrictions could hold broader economic benefits.
“It is projected that there were 57,5 million people living in Kenya in 2025, with a growing middle class. Removing restrictions like the GMO prohibition would benefit South Africa’s economy because it offers a chance to exporting countries like South Africa, which has solidified its position as one of Africa’s top exporters of agricultural products,” Nkunjana said.
He added that Kenya’s location in the Horn of Africa, a region that has experienced severe, back-to-back droughts affecting countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan, underscores the urgency of policy responsiveness.
“Policy changes on issues such as the prohibition on GM organisms have become more and more necessary, but only the leaders and decision-makers in these countries have the authority to review their policies and make decisions,” Nkunjana said.
