- South Africa’s beef exports fell 26% in 2025 amid its worst foot-and-mouth outbreak in decades.
- Shipments to China dropped nearly 70% after Beijing imposed a ban in May.
- Farmers face rising production costs, shrinking output and shortages of vaccines.
- Government efforts to vaccinate 80% of the national herd signal a race to contain the crisis.
The disease, which resurfaced early in 2025, has spread to seven of the country’s nine provinces. This has put pressure not only on cattle farmers but also on exporters who rely on predictable health and safety conditions to maintain access to high-value markets.
Before the outbreaks, China was South Africa’s third-largest international beef buyer, behind the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. But once China imposed a ban in May 2025, South Africa’s shipments to the market collapsed by 69% to 1,687 tonnes, based on figures from Red Meat Industry Services.
For an industry already dealing with rising feed costs, weak domestic consumer spending, and higher veterinary bills, losing such a large export destination has placed additional strain on producers.
Costs rise sharply at farm level
Farmers are absorbing heavy financial losses as they try to keep the disease out of their herds. On his dairy farm in Mooi River, James Kean saw his normal seasonal operating costs rise by around 1 million rand (about $63,000) after infections were detected nearby.
Farmers across several provinces report similar experiences, with some saying they have used up to three years’ worth of veterinary supplies in just one month. This level of spending is not sustainable for smaller farms, which often lack the cash flow to cope with repeated disease outbreaks.
Kean’s milk output also fell sharply, from roughly 26,000 litres a day to 23,000 litres , because infected cows tend to eat less, lose condition and produce less milk.
He warns that if the outbreak continues at its current pace, South Africa’s national cattle population could shrink dramatically, raising the prospect of higher food prices for consumers.
Government response
The government has announced plans to vaccinate 80% of the national herd, estimated at 12 million cattle.
On 6 February, authorities released the country’s first domestically produced foot-and-mouth vaccine in two decades, an important milestone, but still not enough to meet the current demand.
South Africa continues to rely heavily on vaccines imported from Botswana, Turkiye, and Argentina. Import dependence makes supply uncertain and increases costs for both government and farmers.
Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo says the timing of the outbreak is particularly damaging because the local industry has limited vaccine production capacity.
“We are hit now by one of the worst outbreaks at a time when we don’t have the capacity to produce the vaccines that are required,” agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo told Reuters.
This means disease control is slower, trade restrictions last longer, and the economic fallout spreads more widely across the food sector.
South Africa is one of Africa’s most important beef suppliers, and any disruption affects the region’s food trade flows.
It also highlights a larger challenge facing many emerging markets: the need to strengthen animal-health systems as climate pressures, disease cycles, and globalised trade increase the risk of outbreaks.
With strong global beef demand, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, South Africa stands to regain lost ground. But until the disease is fully controlled and consistent vaccination becomes the norm, export recovery is likely to remain slow.
