In the shifting sands of North African geopolitics, where longstanding rivalries over territory and influence simmer beneath the surface, Morocco’s pursuit of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jet has emerged as a potential flashpoint capable of unsettling its neighbours. Recent developments suggest that Rabat is on the cusp of securing a deal for 32 of these advanced aircraft, a move that would mark the kingdom as the first Arab and African nation to operate the fifth-generation stealth platform. With Israel’s approval now in place—a crucial hurdle given Tel Aviv’s influence over sales of such sensitive technology to Arab states—the agreement could span $17 billion over 45 years, covering not just procurement but also ongoing maintenance and support. Speculation at the International Defence Exhibition and Conference in Abu Dhabi earlier this year pointed to the re-election of Donald Trump as a catalyst, reviving unfinished business from his first term when similar discussions faltered amid regional sensitivities.
The F-35, crafted by Lockheed Martin, represents a pinnacle of modern aviation engineering, blending stealth, versatility, and cutting-edge avionics into a family of multirole fighters suited for air dominance, ground attacks, and reconnaissance. Its three variants cater to diverse operational needs: the F-35A for conventional take-offs and landings, the F-35B for short take-offs and vertical landings ideal for amphibious assaults, and the F-35C optimised for carrier operations with reinforced structures to withstand the rigours of naval catapults and arrests. At the heart of the jet pulses the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, propelling it to speeds exceeding Mach 1.6 while offering a combat radius of about 669 nautical miles, varying slightly by model. Stealth coatings and design elements minimise its radar signature, rendering it elusive to adversary detection systems, while the AN/APG-81 active electronically scanned array radar delivers unparalleled situational awareness, fusing data from multiple sensors to guide precision munitions like air-to-air missiles and guided bombs. During the IDEX event, Lockheed Martin officials reportedly delivered a detailed presentation to Moroccan military representatives, outlining how these features could elevate the Royal Moroccan Air Force’s capabilities in contested environments.
From Morocco’s vantage point, acquiring the F-35 would constitute a transformative upgrade, vaulting its air arm into the elite tier of global forces. This ambition builds on recent enhancements, including the 2020 approval for 24 F-16C/D Block 72 Vipers—20 single-seat C models and four two-seat D trainers—powered by Pratt & Whitney F100-229 engines, with deliveries slated for this year. Complementing these are upgrades to the existing fleet of 23 F-16s, bringing them to the F-16V standard equipped with Northrop Grumman’s APG-83 active electronically scanned array radar for superior target tracking, Lockheed Martin’s AN/AAQ-33 Sniper targeting pod for precise strikes, Terma’s AN/ALQ-213 electronic warfare management system, and L3Harris’s AN/ALQ-211 advanced integrated defensive electronic warfare suite to counter threats. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets are also advancing, with two Gulfstream G550 aircraft being modified by L3 Systems in Texas using Israeli Elta systems, alongside new Israeli spy satellites to maintain vigilant oversight of borders and potential adversaries, particularly Algeria. Integrating the F-35 with these F-16s would be streamlined by shared training protocols among NATO allies, many of whom already fly both types, potentially allowing Morocco to achieve operational readiness by around 2035.
This buildup has not gone unnoticed in Algiers, where officials view Morocco’s modernisation as a direct erosion of their aerial superiority. Algeria, in turn, is poised to induct Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 Felon, becoming the inaugural export customer for this fifth-generation fighter. A 2018 order for 14 Su-57s and 18 Su-35s aims to augment its Su-30MKA fleet, with deliveries commencing this year and pilots already training in Russia. The Su-57 boasts stealth attributes, supermanoeuvrability, and sophisticated avionics tailored to rival Western jets like the F-35, though integration across Algeria’s forces lags behind Morocco’s cohesive approach. Rosoboronexport’s CEO, Alexander Mikheyev, confirmed at the 2021 MAKS airshow that inquiries for the Su-57E export variant hail from five nations across Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Europe, underscoring Moscow’s drive to expand its footprint. Algeria’s acquisitions pose a counterweight to NATO-aligned states like Morocco, heightening the stakes in their enduring rivalry over the Western Sahara, where air power could prove decisive in any escalation.
The divergence in procurement paths mirrors broader alignments: Morocco deepening ties with the United States and Israel through normalisation accords, while Algeria clings to its longstanding partnership with Russia. This schism extends beyond hardware, influencing diplomacy and economics in the Mediterranean basin. Morocco’s F-35 aspirations could further isolate Algeria, tipping the scales in the Western Sahara dispute by enabling precision operations that elude traditional defences. Such a shift might ignite a renewed arms race, prompting other regional players to respond in kind.
Egypt, for instance, is eyeing Chinese alternatives to counter Israel’s expanding F-35 fleet, with discussions underway for the J-10C and the stealthy J-31—potentially marking the latter’s debut export if Cairo edges out Pakistan. The J-10C, a cost-effective fourth-generation-plus fighter, and the J-31, China’s foray into fifth-generation design, would modernise Egypt’s air force, replacing ageing American platforms amid strained relations with Washington. High-level meetings in Beijing between Egyptian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mahmoud Fuad Abdel Gawad and his Chinese counterpart General Chang Dingqiu have fuelled these talks, though Beijing denied J-10 sales in March amid rumours of deliveries. Joint exercises in April, featuring J-10Cs alongside Egyptian MiG-29s, underscore Cairo’s diversification strategy, balancing US dependencies while addressing threats from Israel’s advanced squadrons.
As these three North African rivals arm themselves with cutting-edge technology, the ripple effects could extend to Spain, where Morocco’s potential acquisition has sparked debates over Mediterranean power dynamics, and beyond, fostering instability in an already volatile area. The F-35’s arrival in Morocco would not merely enhance one nation’s defences but could redefine alliances, escalate procurement spirals, and test the fragile equilibrium that has long defined the region’s security architecture.
