Trump promises Ukraine aid on Europe’s dime, with heavy penalties for Russia. On Monday, President Trump announced a new plan to increase sales of U.S. weapons to Europe in order to help support Ukraine, and promised aggressive new tariffs—perhaps as high as 100%—aimed at Russia’s trading partners should it fail to reach a peace deal in the next 50 days.
Among the arms Trump said the United States would sell to Europe are a “full complement” of Patriot missiles and batteries, which are generally understood to be 32 missiles, though it varies depending on missile type. Such sales had been in doubt following a hastily-announced and terminated “review” of U.S. weapons stocks, which resulted in a temporary pause in Ukraine aid, Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported Monday.
Rewind: This past January, outgoing members of President Joe Biden’s security team met with members of the incoming Trump team. A plan was floated to allow the incoming administration to continue to provide vital weapons and aid to Ukraine, paid for out of rising European defense budgets. That particular plan that strongly resembles the one announced yesterday in the Oval office, Tucker reports.
Several nations have already lined up to buy U.S. arms for transfer to Ukraine. Those include Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Monday during a visit to the White House. “Speed is of the essence here,” Rutte told reporters.
Berlin’s POV: “We are determined to assume greater responsibility for Europe’s deterrence and defense, while recognizing that the contribution of the United States of America remains indispensable to our collective security,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters Monday after a visit to the Pentagon.
Developing: Trump may also remove limits on long-range ATACMS strikes inside Russia, David Ignatius of the Washington Post reported Monday. Ignatius cited “a source involved in the decision” to resume arms transfers to Ukraine (via sales to NATO allies first).
An estimated $10 billion in U.S. arms for Ukraine could be coming soon, Ignatius writes. But there is also considerably more: “I’m told by a source involved in the decision that this is likely to include permission to use the 18 long-range ATACMS missiles now in Ukraine at their full range of 300 kilometers (about 190 miles),” Ignatius reports. “That wouldn’t reach all the way to Moscow or St. Petersburg, but it would strike military bases, airfields and supply depots deep inside Russia that are now out of range. The package might also include more ATACMS,” he added.
Notable: Trump is allegedly holding back on sending Ukraine tomahawk cruise missiles, citing in part their much-greater range. “They could be deployed later if Trump wants even more leverage,” Ignatius writes.
Bigger picture: “The president has also embarked on an escalatory course whose risks are unknowable,” according to Ignatius, echoing fears of many Republican lawmakers during Biden’s tenure as president, when U.S. officials weighed the pros and cons of arming Ukraine with ATACMS, F-16s, tanks, and more. Many U.S. lawmakers accused Biden of provoking a third world war. Relatedly, “It was interesting that the one question Trump didn’t want to answer in Monday’s Oval Office session was: If Putin decides to escalate further, how far are you willing to go in response?” Ignatius reported from Trump’s remarks to reporters Monday at the White House. Read the rest, here.
Putin’s bet: U.S. sanctions and more weapons to Kyiv will not stop his Ukraine invasion, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters on Tuesday. “Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine—including the Americans—so he will continue until he gets what he wants,” one of those sources said. Another source alleged “Putin considered Moscow’s goals far more important than any potential economic losses from Western pressure.”
Trump’s NATO pivot: The Russia-focused alliance “is now becoming the opposite of [obsolete]” because more members are “paying their own bills,” the president said in a 20-minute phone interview with Gary O’Donoghue of the BBC on Monday. He didn’t elaborate a great deal in the interview, but when asked if he trusts Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Trump responded, “I trust almost nobody, to be honest with you.”
Related reading:
Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Patrick Tucker. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1916, Boeing Co. was founded in Seattle as the Pacific Aero Products Company; it was renamed Boeing Airplane Company the following year.
Around the Defense Department
Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok now has a $200 million deal with the Pentagon, and it comes just days after an “antisemitism row,” reports the BBC.
Background: Anthropic, Google and OpenAI won similar awards (the number is a “ceiling” that each could win based on existing contracts, Govexec’s editor-in-chief Frank Konkel writes). But the inclusion of Elon Musk’s’ xAI, the parent of the Grok, drew surprise and some alarm.
Dive deeper: Grok, which is available as a chatbot feature for users of Musk’s X social media platform (formerly Twitter), has spouted racist conspiracy theories and used antisemetic language, and increasingly reflects the personal biases of Musk, himself.
Capitol Hill reax: “This is the same Grok that was ‘manipulated’ into praising Hitler last week,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., posted on X. “What could possibly go wrong when integrating this AI into our national security?”
New: Pentagon pulls all military speakers from ‘globalist’ Aspen Security Forum, Just The News reported Monday In a statement received by The New York Times and multiple other outlets, Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson described the event–long-attended by senior U.S. military and political leaders–as promoting “the evil of globalism, disdain for our great country and hatred for the president of the United States.”
Remember Trump 2.0’s first national security advisor, Mike Waltz? Despite being ousted from the White House more than two months ago after the Signalgate scandal with Pete Hegseth, “Waltz has spent the last few months on the White House payroll, earning an annual salary of $195,200,” the Associated Press reported Tuesday.
Waltz has been nominated to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, and he’s testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday for his first confirmation hearing for that role. That hearing began at 10 a.m. ET. Livestream what remains here.
Pacific region
In a new first, Australia used a HIMARS long-range rocket system in a war game alongside U.S. and Singapore counterparts Monday, Reuters reported from Australia.
Why it matters: The system has a 250-mile range, and is seen as a credible threat to the growing Chinese military in the region. “HIMARS will be utilised in conjunction with a number of other weapon platforms … to ensure we have a strategy of denial for security, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” the top officer in charge, Australian Army Brig. Nick Wilson told reporters.
Sixteen other nations are exercising as well this week in drills known as Talisman Sabre, which span far off Australia’s mainland up near Christmas Island and extend down to Australia’s eastern coast. More, here.
Japan’s military flagged increasingly complex Chinese military drills in the region as a growing threat, according to the latest such annual report. Chinese troops are “stepping up their activities throughout areas surrounding Japan, including the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan and the western Pacific Ocean, beyond the so-called first-island,” the authors warn.
North Korea is also “a more serious and imminent threat to Japan’s security than ever before,” the authors write, citing Pyongyang’s “capability to attack Japan by equipping ballistic missiles with nuclear weapons.”
Recommendation: “It is extremely important to strengthen cooperation not only with allies, but also with as many countries as possible.” Read over the English version (PDF) here.
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