Crisis is no longer the exception — it’s the default setting of global trade. From pandemic shocks to port gridlocks, geopolitical ruptures to tariff reversals, the world’s supply chains are being stress-tested like never before.
Source: Paul Vos, Regional Managing Director: Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) Southern Africa.
For South Africa, the latest upheaval — a US court ruling reigniting tariff uncertainties — is more than a blip on the radar. It’s a flashing red warning that the country must stop reacting and start re-engineering how it sources, partners, and prepares. What’s at stake isn’t just exports. It’s economic resilience — and survival.
The decision to overturn former President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs has triggered confusion among global importers, sending freight rates soaring and igniting fears of renewed congestion across global shipping lanes.
According to PwC, over R47bn ($2.5bn) in South African exports to the United States, primarily steel and aluminium, are at risk from the possible reinstatement of Section 232 tariffs.
If enforced, these tariffs could shrink South Africa’s exports to the US by up to 35% in key sectors, with knock-on effects including supply-chain contraction, job losses, and increased operational costs due to rerouting and compliance burdens.
Supply chain strain
“Geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical. It is immediate, material, and embedded in how our supply chains are designed,” says Paul Vos, Regional Managing Director: Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) Southern Africa. “South African businesses must ask themselves not just how to respond, but how to build resilience into every layer of their procurement strategy proactively.”
The warning signs are already visible. Global freight rates have surged in recent weeks: the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index spiked by 487 points, and Drewry’s World Container Index climbed by over 10% to $2,508 per 40-foot container. This has been driven by a rush of US-bound cargo ahead of expected tariff enforcement, which has tightened capacity on major routes and triggered a wave of reinstated services and container delays.
Locally, South African ports have been strained by both volume and fragility. In the final week of May alone, over 84,000 containers (TEUs) moved through the country’s ports, up 17% from the previous week, despite adverse weather, equipment breakdowns, and staffing shortages.
Cross-border trade flows are similarly under pressure, with delays and border queue times costing the transport industry an estimated R168m in a single week, according to the latest Business Unity South Africa (Busa) and South African Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff) cargo movement update.
Procurement leads transformation
Vos says that the lessons from past crises, such as Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and Red Sea shipping risks, must no longer be treated as one-offs. “What these events all underscore is the systemic fragility of global supply networks. For South Africa, resilience must become a national priority, not a boardroom afterthought.”
The country has made some strides since the pandemic, particularly in supplier diversification and localisation.
Larger corporations have led the way, investing in the development of local suppliers and reshoring elements of their supply chains. But Vos cautions that progress is uneven and not always strategic. “Much of what we see is compliance-driven localisation, designed to meet procurement thresholds, not create competitive advantage. To truly localise, we need supply-chain ecosystems: infrastructure, access to markets, skills development, and sustained demand.”
Vos believes the procurement profession must play a leading role in rethinking how organisations assess and mitigate risk. This starts with visibility, not just into Tier 1 suppliers, but deep into second- and third-tier networks. Digital control towers, scenario planning, AI-driven risk analysis, and real-time geopolitical alert systems are fast becoming standard tools in resilient supply chains.
However, he warns that these tools are only as good as the data, governance, and talent behind them.
Another critical step is redefining how value is measured. Vos argues that procurement teams need to move beyond focusing on the lowest-cost wins.
“Efficiency and resilience are not opposites. Long-term competitiveness comes from total cost of ownership thinking, factoring in risk, sustainability, supplier health, and ESG performance.” He points to dual sourcing models, inventory buffers for critical inputs, and deeper supplier partnerships as practical measures that pay off in times of disruption.
Prepare for disruption
The state has a role to play, too. Vos calls for national policy frameworks that support industrial incentives, regulatory coherence, and the renewal of logistics infrastructure. But more importantly, he believes in the importance of public-private collaboration to drive change. “Sector-wide procurement platforms, shared supplier development programmes, and joint accountability for skills and jobs- these are the mechanisms that build real resilience.”
Professionalising the procurement function will also be key to long-term resilience. Qualifications like MCIPS equip practitioners with the ethical frameworks, strategic insight, and risk management tools necessary to lead through complexity. “Professionalisation is the foundation of ethical, capable supply chains, particularly in the public sector, where procurement must be the first line of defence against waste and corruption,” says Vos.
Looking ahead, South African businesses must prepare for future disruptions that are no longer hypothetical. These include the impact of carbon border taxes, cybersecurity threats, political instability, climate-driven shocks, and persistent infrastructure constraints in energy, transport and logistics.
Vos argues that future-proofing means not just responding to these risks, but anticipating them, and acting now.
That future will belong to those who digitise, decentralise, and decarbonise. “To thrive through uncertainty – not just survive it – we must embed resilience in how we buy, build, and partner. The next crisis is not a matter of if, but when.”
