Ukraine’s deepest drone strike since the start of the war has hit a Russian airfield in Irkutsk Oblast, relatively close to the border with China, marking a significant expansion in the geographical scope of Kyiv’s long-range campaign.
The strike, part of Ukraine’s “Spider’s Web” Operation, targeted Belaya Air Base, more than 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
It is the first documented Ukrainian drone attack to reach this far into Russian territory — and the first to occur so close to Chinese soil, raising questions about how Moscow’s partners, particularly Beijing, may interpret such developments.
While Ukraine has not officially linked the strike to any signaling beyond its military objectives, Belaya’s proximity to the Chinese border makes it unlikely to have escaped Beijing’s notice.
Operation “Spiderweb”@ServiceSsu has released unique footage of an operation that resulted in the damaging of 41 russian strategic military aircraft. pic.twitter.com/S4C8bSJRAV
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 4, 2025
Chinese Connection
Belaya Air Base once played a central role in Soviet nuclear deterrence during the Sino-Soviet split of the 1960s. After the two countries began resolving their border disputes and normalized relations starting in 1991, Belaya’s strategic importance gradually diminished.
Since then, China and Russia have developed a closer strategic partnership, with Beijing reportedly supporting Moscow’s military ambitions.
Ukraine has voiced concerns about China allegedly supplying military hardware to Russia and even sending soldiers to fight alongside Russian troops on the frontlines.
Earlier this year, Russia moved its bomber fleet to Siberia, aiming to shield it from Ukrainian drone attacks. However, the aircraft were still vulnerable, parked under open skies, and ultimately struck during the Spider’s Web Operation.
“The inability of Russia to protect one of its key strategic assets from a Ukrainian drone attack, combined with the weakness of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine, erodes its ability to position itself as a key ally to China,” wrote James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations at Simon Fraser University.
Implications for Regional Security
Russia’s perceived military vulnerabilities may have wider consequences beyond Sino-Russian ties. Defense officials warn that the war’s outcome could influence how countries with unresolved territorial disputes assess the risks and rewards of using military force.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia’s premier defense summit, Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė warned that if Ukraine loses, “it will send a very clear signal also to smaller states here in Indo-Pacific that anyone can ignore their borders, that any fabricated excuse can justify invasion.”
Šakalienė’s remarks allude to ongoing concerns over China’s threats toward Taiwan and underscore how the conflict in Ukraine is shaping regional security calculations far beyond Europe.
