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Climate change has caused temperatures in the Kyrgyz Republic to rise at twice the global average, exacerbating water stress and the risk of natural disasters, according to a new Atlas of Environmental Change launched on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
The average annual temperature in the country has increased by 1.2°C between 1960 and 2023 – compared to a global average of 0.6°C. This rise is expected to speed up in the coming decades. Warmer temperatures mean that river flows are projected to decrease while demand for water increases.
The Atlas data underlines the urgent need for strong climate adaptation policies to reduce irrigation losses, strengthen early warning systems, as well as to improve pasture management – 70% of pastures in the country are estimated to be degraded.
“The Kyrgyz Republic is at the frontline of climate change impacts,” said UNEP’s Europe Office Director, Arnold Kreilhuber. “The wealth of data in this Atlas can form a solid evidence base to support the country in adapting to environmental change and manage the environment sustainably for current and future generations.”
Climate change exacerbates water stress, disaster risks
Water resources are one of the most important and at the same time the most vulnerable components of the natural environment, which are changing very quickly under the influence of human activities and climate change.
Up to 93% of the Kyrgyz Republic’s electricity is generated by hydropower plants. Climate change, which can lead to a decrease in rainfall, shifting snow covers, and glacial retreat, makes it likely that all reservoirs in the country will receive less water over the next 30 years. For example, water inflow to the Toktogul reservoir, a key source of hydropower, is projected to drop by up to 18.8% by 2050 – meaning less water to turn turbines and generate electricity.
Climate change is furthermore increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. On average, 200 emergencies are registered in the country each year, 90% of which are of a natural origin, such as flooding, earthquakes, mudslides, rockfalls and avalanches. In 2022, natural disasters resulted in nearly 150 people losing their lives and triggered annual average economic losses of $27 million between 2012-2018.
The Kyrgyz Republic is located at the upper reaches of many major rivers, making transboundary cooperation and integrated water management important for the entire region.
Progress in forestry and wildlife conservation
Even as it faces these challenges, the country has made significant strides in environmental conservation, particularly in protecting its forests and wildlife. Since 2000, forest cover has increased from 6.2% to 6.9% of the Kyrgyz Republic due to afforestation, a difficult task in a country that is overwhelmingly mountainous.
In 2000, protected areas made up only 0.5 million hectares of the country, but this increased to 1.5 million hectares by 2023. By 2040, protected areas are planned to cover as much as 10% of the country and protect 60–65% of the species included in the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
All forests in the country are legally protected from large-scale commercial logging and – thanks to the establishment of the Khan Teniri Nature Park – the area of protected land that is home to snow leopards in the Central Tien Shan mountains has been expanded by 40%.
Supporting environmental priorities
The Atlas is underpinned by datasets covering six decades, sourced from global, regional, and national institutions, and will be made publicly available. The project data is organised and stored on a GeoPortal, so that information can be continually used and updated based on national priorities. The resource provides detailed information on the environment, focusing on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, progress towards the three Rio Conventions (climate change, biodiversity and desertification) and SDG6 and SDG15.
The Atlas is the result of a project where numerous Kyrgyz ministries and government agencies joined forces through consultations, information-sharing, the training of Geographic Information System (GIS) experts and technical inputs. UNEP purchased IT equipment and GIS software for government officials and trained national experts.
UNEP led this project in cooperation with Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, with financial support from the Government of the Russian Federation. The project also covers Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and their respective Atlases will be published in the coming months.
