A naval war between African states is unlikely. Rather, the primary maritime security threat is from non-state actors using increasingly sophisticated technology like unmanned vessels.
This is according to Denys Reva, Maritime Security Researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). He was speaking at a 25 February panel discussion event in Pretoria held under the theme ‘Advanced Developments in Ukrainian Combat Unmanned Systems and New Opportunities for African Regional Security’.
Non-state actors will remain a problem, as can be seen by the resurgence of piracy off Somalia, Reva said. They will make increasing use of technology, including cyber and uncrewed systems.
Spain, for example, in 2022 confiscated uncrewed submarines used to smuggle cocaine between Morocco and Europe. These unmanned vessels, capable of carrying up to 200 kg of cargo, are difficult to detect and intercept.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, meanwhile, make use of multiple unmanned surface vessel designs (USVs) to attack shipping. While they are not particularly sophisticated, they are effective and are a clear indication of how easy it is to use cheap, relatively accessible technology to achieve their goals.
“We see terrorist and armed groups seeking ways to deploy this new technology, at least test it,” Reva said. “The successful deployment by Ukraine of uncrewed systems is a good example for terrorist groups and criminal organisations of the impact this can have.”
“The Houthis have also provided a good example of that. Once these groups see the successful deployment of this new technology they will try it themselves and we need to be prepared for the proliferation of this new technology.”
Reva noted that the ISS researched the impact of USVs and drones on maritime security in 2021 and concluded it would take ten to 15 years to mature this technology, but four years later such technology is in widespread use. Unmanned systems are seen as a threat in the hands of non-state actors but can also be used by states to enhance maritime security, Reva said.
USVs cannot replace vessels but they can act as a force multiplier to monitor and detect certain threats, for example. Large USVs could be used for offensive sea missions and medium sized ones for surveillance and intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, resupply, and electronic warfare. Compared to traditional naval assets, USVs are cheaper to acquire, operate and maintain, and can fill capacity gaps.
The need for maritime security
In his presentation, Reva outlined the importance of maritime security for Africa. He pointed out that 39 of 55 African nations are coastal states, with even the 16 landlocked states dependent on coastal ones for exports and imports – around 90% of all African import and export is carried by sea.
Reva said the 2021 cyber attack on Durban’s port not only impacted South African exports, but also affected copper exports from Zambia as these mainly exit through South African ports.
Africa’s maritime security area of responsibility is vast – the continent has a coastline of 26 000 nautical miles/48 000 km, and an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) area of 13 million square km. South Africa, for example, has a land size of 1.2 million square km whereas its EEZ is 1.5 million square km.
At any point in time, there are hundreds of ships transiting Africa’s two major international trade routes, and these are only going to get busier as ships continue to bypass the Suez Canal to avoid the Houthi threat, and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement increases ship movements. With more ship traffic, and long vessel dwell time in ports, it creates opportunities for criminals to target ships, Reva believes.
The crux of Africa’s maritime security is a combination of a vast area of responsibility, heavy maritime traffic, and a lack of capacity by navies and coast guards to effectively monitor, detect, collect evidence on, and respond to maritime security threats.
Piracy, smuggling, trafficking, and illegal fishing are some of the maritime threats facing Africa. One highlighted by Reva is that of drug smuggling: Africa is at the crossroads of massive drug routes primarily connecting different production facilities to Europe. Cocaine comes from Latin America, particularly Colombia, on its way to Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, while meth and amphetamines come from the Asia-Pacific in increasing volumes. Most trafficking is carried out with ships, and “bad actors hide themselves in massive traffic volumes.”
The global heroin market is estimated to be about 430 to 450 tons; some 40 tons of heroin are trafficked through the Western Indian Ocean annually. On the southern heroin route, heroin comes from Pakistan and Iran on smaller vessels that are not obliged to carry transponders. They drop drugs into the water off Tanzania, which is then taken ashore and smuggled to Europe. Five tons of heroin remain at African landing sites, including the continent’s small island states in and around the Mozambique Channel. Reva noted that between 5% and 10% of the Seychellois population of about 98 000 uses heroin, with the archipelago having the highest per capital heroin consumption rate in the world.
Illegal fishing is another issue, with fishing vessels taking advantage of gaps in capacity. For example, fishing vessels stay outside of EEZs in the day, switch off their transponders at night, fish in the EEZ and then return beyond the EEZ in the day.
“If there is suspicious activity around the Prince Edward Islands, it will take 26 hours for a ship to come investigate from South Africa,” Reva said. “Criminals are quite aware of the lack of capacity within African states and exploit these issues to their advantage.”
“Not one country in the world can unilaterally provide maritime security,” Reva said, highlighting the need for cooperation and collaboration and the use of technology, including USVs, as a force multiplier.
