The F-35 program—a global effort built around international cooperation and trust—could become a victim of President Donald Trump’s threats to forsake or even annex NATO allies, experts and former defense officials warn.
Trump’s calls to seize Greenland from Denmark and turn Canada into America’s 51st state pose a “real challenge” for the program, a former defense official said, as both countries fly the fifth-generation combat jet and rely on U.S. spare parts and software upgrades.
“If the current efforts to challenge the territorial integrity of those nations continue, it is very hard to see how they remain with the program,” the official said.
A key issue, officials warn, is that the F-35 is more than just a plane: its power hinges on the seamless sharing of data. But as confidence wanes in the U.S. as an ally, some countries—many of which have built their entire defense strategies around the F-35—may now be reassessing their reliance on the aircraft, another former senior defense official said.
“Most countries probably right now are doing a plan B. They’re saying, ‘We trusted F-35, we trusted the United States, we trusted this to our national security. Oh my gosh. What happens if we can’t trust it? What’s our plan B?’” the official said.
No country that currently flies F-35s is likely to abandon the airframe immediately, but Germany and Canada might alter their recent orders, while NATO countries that had mulled additional purchases may look elsewhere, said Richard Aboulafia, managing director for AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace consulting firm.
“Even if Trump and company were to reverse what they’ve done tomorrow, it would take years to recover, so yes, I’d expect a very strong long-term reaction. There’s going to be long-term negative consequences to the U.S. arms-export prospects to Europe and other allies, absolutely,” Aboulafia said.
Germany’s plan to buy 35 F-35As is a major question mark. The country bought the jet to carry U.S. nuclear weapons, a mission currently handled by its aging fleet of Tornado aircraft. But if the U.S. withdraws its nukes and other forces from Germany, Berlin might consider buying the French Rafale jet, and rely on a French nuclear deterrent or some kind of sharing agreement, said Byron Callan, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners.
Britain, which has received 30 of its planned 138 F-35s, might put some of that money into European fighter programs, Callan said.
“I think we can see these mixed fleets of aircraft that might, over time, reduce the overall dependence on the United States,” he said. “I don’t see the demand for the F-35 increasing significantly in Europe in this environment.”
Some European countries have publicly reaffirmed their support for the F-35 program. The Netherlands, which has received 40 of the 52 it ordered, said that the U.S. is still a reliable ally, but urged European countries to bolster their own defense.
“It’s in the interest of all of us to make sure that the F-35 program remains operational, that it remains as successful as it is right now, and I don’t see any signs of the United States backtracking,” Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans told reporters on Tuesday in Paris.
The unprecedented tremors in the alliance have resuscitated an old rumor that F-35s have a “kill switch” that can ground them from Washington. F-35 lead contractor Lockheed Martin, which has always denied such a thing, on Monday re-published a Swiss-government press release declaring that its military can operate the jet independently. No actual evidence of a kill switch has ever materialized.
But the U.S. could almost as easily degrade others’ F-35s by withholding spare parts, canceling services, and blocking software updates delivered by U.S. cloud-based software systems.
In a statement, the F-35 Joint Program Office said it remains committed to “providing all users with the full functionality and support they require” and that the program operates under “well-established agreements” so that all F-35 operators have the needed capabilities.
In its own statement, Lockheed said that it is “committed to providing unmatched capability, reliability and allied interoperability with the F-35, to enable our customers to complete their missions and come home safely.”
Despite the uncertainty, analysts remain hopeful that the program will not suffer in the near term—in part because of the global supply chain.
If the U.S. stopped supplying parts or services, the American defense industry in Europe would be crippled, said Jon Hemler, a military aerospace analyst with Forecast International. Current buyers are likely betting they can wait out the instability of this administration, he said.
“The U.S. aerospace industry is highly integrated with Europe on the F-35, with offsets to include a final assembly line in Cameri, Italy, and planned assembly work in Switzerland and Finland. Any hypothetical maintenance or software support withholding from the U.S. would mean self-inflicted damage on American aerospace manufacturers and subcontractors while undermining any potential foreign future sales for the F-35,” Hemler said.
There are also no other alternatives to the 5th-gen F-35 at the moment, with years to go before the first flights of the big European programs to develop next-gen fighter jets—the Future Combat Air System and the Global Combat Air Programme.
But Aboulafia cautioned that if it came down to choosing between a 4th-gen Eurofighter or Rafale and the 5th-gen F-35, European nations might favor the less advanced aircraft if it means gaining some independence from an increasingly rogue America.
“The F-35 was the product of an era of extreme trust, and they may never trust the U.S. again,” Aboulafia said.
