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al-Shabaab to face renewed military operations in Somalia

Simon Osuji by Simon Osuji
February 15, 2025
in Military & Defense
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al-Shabaab to face renewed military operations in Somalia
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AUSSOM parade ahead of military commanders’ meeting.

A month into its new guise as the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) senior commanders met their counterparts from the Somali National Army (SNA) to strategise joint counter offensive operations against al-Shabaab.

AUSSOM is the third identity of the African Union (AU) mission in the easternmost African continental country where over 18 million Somalis are resident. The presence of the continental body goes back to 2007 when its first mission – AMISOM (AU Mission to Somalia) – was deployed. This morphed into ATMIS (AU Transition Mission in Somalia) in April 2022 before becoming a support and stabilisation operation at the beginning of this year.

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Acting AUSSOM Force Commander Major General Marius Ngendabanka met senior Somali security officials, led by Chief of Defence Forces, General Odowa Yusuf Rage, at Force Headquarters, for, what a statement said was “in-depth discussions on enhancing co-ordination and advancing joint operations”. The 6 February meeting was one of a series since AUSSOM became operational all aimed to building on ATMIS achievements.

The military commanders, according to the statement, met against the backdrop of the Somali government announcing a relaunch of military operations against al-Shabaab. The operations are in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2767 of 2024 which mandates AUSSOM forces to support the Somali government “in degrading al-Shabaab and other affiliated armed groups as part of the stabilisation process”.

The transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM has significantly impacted the ground situation in Somalia, reflecting both continuity and new challenges.

AUSSOM, which became operational on January 1, 2025, is designed to follow a more realistic and extended timeline of five years, compared to ATMIS’s three-year mandate. This shift allows AUSSOM to focus on bolstering the Somali Security Forces (SSF) and enhancing their operational capabilities while maintaining an explicit mandate to protect civilians from immediate threats of violence. The new mission adopts a backup and urban-based operational approach with a reduced force strength of approximately 11,146 troops, which is less than its predecessors.

The transition occurs against a backdrop of escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, complicating the security landscape. AUSSOM’s operational effectiveness is contingent on addressing these geopolitical dynamics while ensuring that it does not inherit the financial and logistical challenges faced by ATMIS, which struggled with significant funding shortfalls.

Despite the new mission’s objectives, there are concerns that AUSSOM may merely be ATMIS by another name, as it inherits unresolved issues from its predecessor. The lack of progress in building the SSF’s capacity remains a critical concern, as does the ongoing threat posed by al-Shabaab. Recent reports indicate a resurgence of al-Shabaab attacks, highlighting the persistent instability in the region.

Political cohesion within Somalia continues to be a significant hurdle for AUSSOM’s success. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) faces ongoing tensions with Federal Member States, which complicates efforts to unify security operations against al-Shabaab. Without political consensus and cooperation among various factions, achieving the mission’s benchmarks will be difficult.

While AUSSOM aims to build upon ATMIS’s achievements and address its shortcomings, the transition has not alleviated existing challenges. The effectiveness of AUSSOM will depend on its ability to navigate complex political landscapes, secure adequate funding, and enhance the capabilities of Somali forces to combat al-Shabaab effectively. The situation remains fluid, with both opportunities for improvement and risks of further instability ahead.



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