After a four-year freeze, jihadist rebels in Syria seized control of the country’s largest city of Aleppo on Friday and Saturday, prompting Russian airstrikes across the city—allegedly including at hospitals and medical facilities—as the Assad regime tries to reestablish control. Reuters calls it “the first time control of the city has shifted since 2016, when government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, defeated rebels who had controlled Aleppo’s eastern districts.”
What’s going on: The advances, which also include locations around Idlib and Hamas, are “not the result of Israel’s weakening of Iran and Hezbollah,” nor are they “the result of Russia having ‘withdrawn’ from Syria (it hasn’t),” said Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute. “It’s the result of a profoundly fragile regime & fragmented ‘military,’” he wrote on social media Sunday.
Officials from Turkey, Iran, Russia and Syria are all scrambling to blunt the offensive and protect their troops and territory, the Associated Press reported in an explainer Monday. Iran has even directed several of its Iraq-based militias to assist, AP and Reuters reported separately.
Even U.S. strikes were reported Sunday targeting Iran-backed militias traveling in eastern Syria, according to Lister.
For what it’s worth, “The U.S., along with France, Germany and the U.K., issued a joint statement overnight calling for a de-escalation in the conflict,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “The current escalation only underscores the urgent need for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict,” that statement read.
From Turkey’s POV, this is a problem of Syria’s making. “It would be wrong to explain recent developments in Syria with foreign intervention,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters Monday. “The latest developments show the need for Damascus to reconcile with its people and the opposition,” he said, citing “problems in the past 13 years [that] were not solved.”
From the region:
- “Hezbollah fires at an Israeli-held border zone, the group’s first strike since a ceasefire began,” the Associated Press reported Monday from Jerusalem;
- “Israel Builds Bases in Central Gaza, a Sign It May Be There to Stay,” the New York Times reported Monday;
- “Former Israeli defense minister Yaalon warns of ethnic cleansing in Gaza,” Reuters reported Sunday;
- “Trump Names Massad Boulos, His Daughter’s Father-in-Law, as Middle East Adviser,” the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday;
- “What the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire means for the region—and US involvement,” via The Conversation after speaking to Asher Kaufman, professor of history and peace studies at Notre Dame, last week.
Also: Near Yemen, the U.S. Navy shot down several objects the Iran-backed Houthis launched at three U.S.-flagged commercial ships transiting the Gulf of Aden Saturday and Sunday. The projectiles included three anti-ship ballistic missiles, three one-way attack aerial drones, and one anti-ship cruise missile, officials at Central Command announced Sunday.
Involved: U.S. Navy destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) and the USS O’Kane (DDG 77). The Houthi “attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilian or U.S. Naval,” CENTCOM said.
Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson, Bradley Peniston and Jennifer Hlad. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1891, German painter Otto Dix was born. His service during World War I gave him recurring nightmares, some of which he channeled into celebrated works of art during the 1920s and early 1930s. When the Nazis took power, he was ordered to stop painting subversive imagery, and largely did. He eventually passed away in Dresden at the age of 77.
Europe and Ukraine
Update: A Chinese ship is suspected of dragging its anchor to cut Baltic cables. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Investigators suspect that the crew of the Yi Peng 3 bulk carrier—225 meters long, 32 meters wide and loaded with Russian fertilizer—deliberately severed two critical data cables last week as its anchor was dragged along the Baltic seabed for over 100 miles.”
Authorities are now trying to establish whether the captain of the Chinese-owned ship was “induced by Russian intelligence to carry out the sabotage. It would be the latest in a series of attacks on Europe’s critical infrastructure that law-enforcement and intelligence officials say have been orchestrated by Russia,” which has denied wrongdoing. More, here.
German chancellor pledges more military aid on surprise trip to Kyiv. Olaf Scholz had drawn sharp criticism for a recent phone call to Russian leader Vladimir Putin. NYT: “Ukrainian officials denounced that outreach, saying that it broke Mr. Putin’s diplomatic isolation from the West and bolstered Moscow’s position ahead of possible peace talks.”
During his Monday visit to Kyiv, Scholz vowed to send “$680 million of military equipment to Ukraine by the year’s end, part of a bigger package announced in the fall.” Read on, here.
Possible glimpse into future warfare: “Ukraine sees use of uncrewed ground vehicles, AI-targeting drones surging next year,” Reuters reported Monday after speaking to Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
Around the services
U.S. Army aims to move its pay system to the cloud by 2027. Announced last month, the effort will move the guts of the Integrated Personnel and Pay System-Army, which manages recruitment, personnel, and medical files, to a custom-cloud environment. Plans are being drawn up by the IPPS-A product management team at Army Program Executive Office Enterprise. The new system must be operational by December 2027, a PEO spokesperson said. Defense One’s Lauren C. Williams and Frank Konkel have more, here.
For your ears only: You may have heard America’s Navy shipbuilding industry is considerably backlogged, and has been since at least the pandemic.
We devoted all 40-plus minutes of our most recent podcast to understanding exactly why that is—along with a few suggestions regarding what to do about it—with the help of Virginia’s Rep. Rob Wittman, Matthew Paxton of the Shipbuilders Council of America, Brent Sadler of the Heritage Foundation and more. Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
ICYMI: There’s a new boss at the helm for General Dynamics Electric Boat. America has just two shipyards that can service nuclear submarines, and one of those just got a new president.
Connecticut-based GDEB is now led by Mark Rayha, who took over Sunday after 30-year veteran Kevin Graney retired in a departure announced in August. Rayha had most recently served as senior vice president and chief operating officer of GDEB, with experience at the larger General Dynamics firm extending back to 1989.
Pacific
U.S. adds restrictions in latest effort to slow China’s chipmakers. On Monday, the United States launched what Reuters calls a “third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor industry,” restricting exports of high-bandwidth memory chips, 24 chipmaking machines, and three software tools. It also restricts the export of chip-related equipment made in Singapore and Malaysia.
Reuters: “The move is one of the Biden administration’s last large-scale efforts to stymie China’s ability to access and produce chips that can help advance artificial intelligence for military applications, or otherwise threaten U.S. national security.” Read on, here.
ICYMI: For a good discussion of the bottlenecks in Beijing’s quest to make state-of-the-art chips for AI and other uses, see “China’s chip chokepoints” from Peter Singer and BluePath Labs.
Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, visited Hawaii Saturday on the first of several stops around the Pacific. Lai is also planning to visit Guam, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Pulau. While in Hawaii, he was greeted at the Kahala Hotel by enthusiastic supporters bearing flower leis and Taiwanese flags, and shouting “aloha” and “Team Taiwan.” Defense One’s Jennifer Hlad was at the hotel and captured video of the arrival, you can watch that on Instagram, here.
During his two days on Oahu, Lai visited a museum and the USS Arizona memorial, met with the governor and members of Hawaii’s congressional delegation, and spoke at the East-West Center think tank—but he did not meet with U.S. military officials. “Our visit to the memorial today in particular reminds us of the importance of ensuring peace,” he said in a speech aired on Hawaii TV. “Peace is priceless and war has no winner. We have to fight—fight together—to prevent war,” he said, according to Reuters, reporting Sunday.
While at the East-West Center, Lai shared “three positive actions Taiwan has taken for the Indo-Pacific region and the world,” according to a post on his official Facebook page. “I hope Taiwan, the United States, the world and other countries will strengthen cooperation and work together to contribute to peace, stability and prosperity in the Taiwan Straits and Indo-Pacific region, and build a prosperous future!”
China’s Foreign Ministry was displeased with Lai’s travel plans, and warned ahead of his Hawaii visit that if the U.S. wishes to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, it must handle dealings with Taiwan “with utmost caution, clearly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting China’s peaceful reunification.”
By the way: The U.S. approved $320 million in F-16 support for Taiwan, the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced Friday. That deal includes “critical spare and repair parts, consumables and accessories,” with deliveries expected to begin sometime next year.
Another sale worth an estimated $65 million was announced separately. That one concerned “follow-on support for the Improved Mobile Subscriber Equipment and Experimental Force system,” which reportedly “functions as a field base station capable of integrating all voice encryption, data links, and digital and analog signals into a comprehensive hub.” Lawmakers can object to the sales in the coming days, though that’s not expected.
The two potential deals add up to the more than two dozen such arrangements announced during President Biden’s tenure. Other purchases include National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, Patriot air defense missiles, a variety of drones, 155mm artillery systems, Sidewinder missiles, Harpoon missiles, and more.
ICYMI: We spoke to two experts earlier this year about what Taiwan should try to purchase in the future ahead of a possible blockade or invasion by China. You can hear those conversations from June here (featuring retired Australian Army Brig. Gen. Mick Ryan) and here (with Dmitri Alperovitch of the Silverado Policy Accelerator).
Related reading:
And don’t miss, “Invisible Nation review – insightful primer for Taiwan’s complex history,” via the Guardian reporting Monday off a documentary set for a Friday release (trailer here).
