Alaska’s most high-stakes resource projects have been tied to the whirring cycle of national politics for decades. With next week’s election, the future of these hotspots is once again being called into question. The regulatory uncertainty forces both proponents and opponents of resource development into endless rounds of advocacy and protest.
If former President Donald Trump is elected for a second term, Americans can expect him to approach Alaska’s energy projects much the way he did in his first term, by breaking down protections and opening more federal lands up for extraction. Project 2025, the policy document written by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, calls on Trump to make millions of acres of the National Petroleum Reserve available for potential oil leasing, and to permit the construction of the Ambler Road, a 200-mile road that would open up a large area in northwest Alaska to mining.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, she’s expected to continue the work of the Biden administration, which has halted some projects in Alaska while advancing others.
Credit: Rick Schwartz/CC via Flickr
“The presidency has made some difference, of course, especially because we operate in Alaska, where there are a lot of federally managed lands,” said Enei Begaye, the executive director of Native Movement, an Alaska nonprofit advocating for Indigenous rights and climate justice. “We’ve seen, under Democratic leadership, protection for public lands and refuge lands, especially those where communities are advocating for protection. We also saw the Biden administration gave one of the largest oil and gas leases away with the Willow project.”
The Biden administration has placed restrictions on the petroleum reserve and rejected the Ambler Road permit. A new administration could reverse those decisions, but it could take more than a single term to get projects approved and started, largely owing to court challenges and qualified personnel shortages. Trump’s pledge to disband government agencies and lay off tens of thousands of federal workers would also slow down the regulatory and permitting work required.
Oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the nation’s largest wildlife refuge, and the area’s coastal plain is the site of a proposed oil drilling project that has been a topic of national discussion for nearly 50 years. The area is estimated to hold at least 7.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It’s also home to an abundance of wildlife and provides critical habitat for endangered species like polar bears.
The coastal plain also serves as a calving grounds for caribou, an important subsistence resource for Alaska Native people as well as First Nations people just across the border in Canada. Nearly all of Alaska’s caribou herds are in decline, but in northwest Alaska, the Porcupine herd reached a record high in 2017. Opponents of the oil field fear development would reverse that trend.
“If Harris gets in there, I think we’ll be in position to do much more protection for the Arctic and work on things that we honestly need to work on, like tourism and the blue economy, and things that go away from not just oil and gas,” said Peter Winsor, the Gwich’in Steering Committee’s interim director, in an interview with the Alaska Beacon.
The Biden administration is still bound by legislation passed under Trump to hold a second lease sale for bidders interested in developing the coastal plain. A 2021 lease sale that generated little interest is still tied up in court, and it’s unclear whether the second lease sale, scheduled for December, will garner many bids. However, the Alaska Industry and Development Export Authority (AIDEA) – a state-run economic development corporation, and one of three bidders in the 2021 lease sale – is poised to make a bid, with their board approving $20 million last week for the upcoming oil lease sale.
Even if the next administration favors developing the refuge, it could be years before oil production begins, and the legal issues are sure to persist for years to come.
Building the Ambler Road
A proposed 211-mile road on the south side of the Brooks Range would open access to a previously inaccessible mining district that is home to rich deposits of copper and other valuable metals. The project would include bridges, material sites, maintenance stations and other infrastructure that would spur economic development in northwest Alaska, according to AIDEA. But it would also cross 11 major river systems, some upstream from Alaska Native villages in fish-spawning habitat.
“Our primary concern is that the construction of this road would permanently damage sensitive ecosystems, disrupt wildlife migration patterns and degrade water quality, ultimately threatening the subsistence resources that are essential to more than 30 Alaska Native communities — and that have already been depleted due to poor management,” said Brian Ridley, chief and chairman of Tanana Chiefs Conference, a nonprofit tribal consortium dedicated to self-determination and unity for Interior Alaska Native tribes. “The road would bring pollution, heavy truck traffic and habitat destruction, putting our land and way of life at risk.” (The tribes represented by the consortium voted unanimously to oppose the Ambler Road.)
The outcome of this election is “incredibly important,” Ridley added, because it will determine the regulatory environment for big projects like the Ambler Road. If the next administration weakens regulations, he said, projects like it could be rushed through without the necessary oversight. Ridley said this election offers a chance to make sure that future projects, especially in Alaska, are done the right way – with proper studies, respect for the environment and in partnerships where Indigenous voices are valued and incorporated into every stage of decision making. “Our voices should help shape the decisions that affect our future, not be pushed aside for corporate interests,” he said.
“This issue isn’t just about stopping one road; it’s about setting a precedent for how we approach development projects across Alaska and the rest of the country,” Ridley said. “We need to elect leaders who understand that Indigenous communities are not against development; we are for sustainable, responsible development that considers the long-term health of our lands and people.”
Efforts to sidestep critical environmental laws are already underway, Ridley said, citing an amendment that Alaska Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan put into an annual defense bill earlier this year that would override Biden’s rejection of the Ambler Road.
“For our communities, the stakes couldn’t be higher,” he said. “Our culture, livelihoods and environment are all intertwined. The wrong leadership could lead to the destruction of ecosystems that our people have depended on for thousands of years.”
Logging in the Tongass
The Tongass National Forest — the largest national forest in the United States — is crucial to the biodiversity and the Indigenous cultures of Southeast Alaska. It’s also a carbon sink for greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. In 2020, Trump rolled back protections for the area’s old-growth forests, creating more opportunities for logging. However, in 2023, President Biden reinstated the so-called “Roadless Rule,” which blocks new roads and logging across most of the Tongass. If Trump is re-elected, those protections could again be rolled back, easing the way for future timber sales. But if Harris — who has been endorsed by the local Southeast Alaska political group Tongass Democrats — is elected, it’s expected she’ll maintain the protections put in place by the Biden administration.
Credit: Alex Milan Tracy/Sipa via AP Images
The future of Pebble Mine
The Environmental Protection Agency vetoed the proposed Pebble copper and gold mine project last year due to concerns about its impact on Bristol Bay salmon. And while Pebble Partnership, the project’s developer, and the state of Alaska are suing to overturn that decision, a regulatory path to mining would still be difficult. If the EPA’s decision is overturned in court, Pebble Partnership Chief Executive John Shively told the Anchorage Daily News that reviving the project could be more likely under a Trump administration. During his first term, Trump slashed the EPA’s budget, and he has campaigned on dismantling the agency in his second term.
Willow: Under construction
The Biden administration approved the Willow project, a massive $8 billion ConocoPhillips oil field on federally protected land in Alaska’s far north. Construction has already begun, with oil production expected within the next five years. While it’s unlikely that the project would be halted by either presidential candidate, regardless of who wins, some additional protections could be put in place.
In September, the Biden administration put out a request for public input on how to update and expand protections in the area. Native Movement, along with two Iñupiat advocacy groups, Grandmothers Growing Goodness and Sovereign Iñupiat for a Living Arctic, recommended designating a new Nuiqsut Subsistence Use Special Area that would protect some land for local Alaska Native people to use for hunting. They would like this area to be co-managed through tribally led stewardship, prioritizing Iñupiat subsistence, culture and traditions.
“We need leadership that is not going to continuously compromise on our global well-being and Indigenous rights and Indigenous leadership,” Begaye, the director of Native Movement, said. “Of course elections matter. But Alaska continues to be seen as a resource warehouse for the rest of the country. … Regardless of who’s in office, we continue to need people to advocate for the protection of these lands.”
