As AI hype gives way to more practical reality, success will hinge on precision, purpose, and accountability rather than scale alone. Fixed and mobile operators will compete for relevance in a rapidly reconfiguring ecosystem, as hyperscalers and data-center specialists continue to outspend traditional players, and direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services mature into both a complement and a potential threat.
At the same time, critical digital infrastructure will come under greater scrutiny as governments and regulators prioritize resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, climate risk, and escalating cyber threats.
Analysys Mason has analyzed today’s market dynamics and structural disruptions to anticipate the forces that will shape opportunity across technology, media, and telecoms in 2026. Together, these nine predictions highlight a world in flux and outline the strategic imperatives that will define success in 2026 and beyond.
1. GPUaaS Revenues Will Quadruple, Reshaping Data-Center investment
Analysys Mason expects GPU-as-a-service revenues to grow fourfold over the next five years, unlocking new data center investment models. Long-term, multi-million-dollar leases between neocloud providers and co-location operators are becoming the norm.
In 2026, the neocloud model will evolve beyond small, short-term, opportunistic deployments. As hyperscalers continue to scale aggressively, neoclouds are securing large, long-term capacity blocks, particularly in the U.S. Some players are also adopting Tier I/II-equivalent architectures for non-critical workloads, reducing CapEx and build times and enabling cheaper leases.
2. AI Will Become “Kryptonite” for Businesses That Deploy it Unmethodically
Despite continued investment momentum, there are clear signs of overheating in the AI market: inflated expectations; capital-chasing, weakly-defined value propositions; and valuations disconnected from realized returns.
By 2026, many organizations will recognize that broad, unfocused AI deployments create “dis-synergies”. Instead of efficiency gains, early enterprise adopters have often experienced slower decision-making, rising costs, and unanticipated operational and governance risks. Sustainable value will come from targeted, outcome-driven AI adoption.
Key revelations for business leaders in 2026 (Source: Analysys Mason, 2025).
3. GCC AI Data Center Investment Will Reach USD 5–7 Billion in 2026
AI has become a strategic priority across the Middle East, with GCC governments positioning it as a core growth catalyst. Analysis Mason estimates that accelerated investment in AI-focused data centers will reach USD 5–7 billion in 2026 alone.
Public announcements indicate more than USD 30 billion will be invested in GCC AI data center capacity by 2030, averaging over USD 6 billion annually, underlining the region’s ambition to become a global AI infrastructure hub.
Forecast of global AI data-center capacity and AI data-center power supply (Source: Analysys Mason, 2025).
4. Operators Will Move from GenAI Agents to Early Agentic AI Foundations
Telecoms operators will begin transitioning from GenAI-based agents to early forms of agentic AI. Today’s deployments, focused on customer service, network optimization, and enterprise use cases, remain largely reactive and prompt-driven.
In 2026, leading operators will start laying the foundations for systems capable of detecting user intent without explicit input and executing complex, multi-step tasks autonomously. While true autonomy remains some distance away, this year will mark a critical inflection point.
Key components of vendor offerings for autonomous agentic AI systems (Source: Analysys Mason, 2025)
5. France Poised to Consolidate from Four to Three MNOs
Analysys Mason expects renewed momentum behind mobile market consolidation in Europe as regulatory priorities shift from price competition to investment, coverage, and resilience.
France, alongside Germany, Spain, and Italy, operates a mature four-player market. France is the most likely candidate for consolidation in 2026, following the rejected EUR 17-billion bid for Altice’s SFR assets by the other large operators in the country (Orange, Bouygues Telecom, and iliad). While previously blocked, ongoing financial pressure, particularly from bondholders, could reopen the door to a revised deal.
6. Early Adopters of Satellite D2D Will Gain Commercial Advantage
Consumer interest in satellite D2D services continues to rise. Analysys Mason’s latest survey shows that 76% of respondents were interested in D2D messaging in 2025, up from 2024, with interest even higher among subscribers considering churn.
D2D services offer differentiation, improved retention, and upsell potential. Implemented in 2026, D2D messaging could deliver annual revenue uplift of around 1% for early-adopting MNOs.
Interest in satellite D2D messaging (Source: Analysys Mason, 2025)
7. Telecoms CapEx Will Be Increasingly Overshadowed by AI Investment
Telecoms operators currently account for over 40% of global public digital infrastructure CapEx, but the survey forecasts that this will fall to 35% in 2026 and continue declining.
Between 2021 and 2031, telecoms and infraco CapEx will drop from USD 350 billion to USD 259 billion (-3% CAGR). However, investment patterns are shifting: operators will pivot from ubiquitous access networks toward transport, interconnect, and cloud infrastructure, where CapEx will grow at a 5% CAGR.
8. AI Adoption Will Be Widespread, But Less Than 25% of Tools Will Fully Deliver Value
By 2026, AI adoption will be near-universal across private-equity portfolios, with around 80% of companies implementing at least one AI-driven tool. However, the study forecasts fewer than 25% of these initiatives to achieve their full expected returns.
The gap will be driven by inflated vendor claims, weak data foundations, and insufficient organizational integration. Demonstrable, data-backed impact on margins and growth will be critical as investors face mounting pressure to realize returns.
Key themes shaping private equity in 2026 (Source: Analysys Mason, 2025)
9. Regulation Will Pivot from Peak Speeds to Coverage and Resilience
Regulators are increasingly prioritizing network resilience, power availability, and quality of service over maximum speeds. The study expects policy frameworks to adopt “whole-system” approaches, ensuring legacy technology retirements do not undermine resilience.
As 5G continues to evolve and 6G approaches, regulatory focus will shift decisively toward coverage quality and resilience, even as vendors emphasize more headline-grabbing use cases.
Conclusion
Together, these nine predictions show an industry moving from expansion at any cost to disciplined execution under tighter scrutiny. AI, infrastructure, and connectivity will continue to attract capital, but value will only increase for those that deploy them with clarity, selectivity, and operational credibility. Operators and investors alike must navigate a shifting balance of power as hyperscalers, neoclouds, and satellites redraw traditional boundaries.
In 2026, winners will be defined not by who moves quickest, but by who builds resilience, scale, and purpose into every strategic decision.
