Recent developments suggest that the nation’s refineries will consume a substantial share of its crude oil production during the first half of 2025.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced its crude oil production forecast for the first half of 2025, aligning with Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.
This initiative aims to maximize the operational capacity of the nation’s domestic refineries by ensuring a consistent and reliable supply of crude oil for processing.
According to the NUPRC, government-owned refineries, the Dangote Petroleum refinery, and eight other domestic refineries are projected to process 770,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bbd) from January to June 2025.
The Nigerian government has outlined ambitious targets, aiming for an output of over two million barrels per day and 62 million barrels per month.
Progress towards these goals was highlighted in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, which noted an 11% rise in the country’s oil production, including condensates, from 1.333 million barrels in October to 1.486 million in November 2024.
This translates to a daily increase of 152,000 barrels and a total monthly increase of approximately one million barrels during that period.
Benefiting refineries
The table below shows the benefitting refineries and the allotted crude oil quantity per day;.
| S/N | Refinery | Location | Daily crude QTY (BBL) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
650,000 bpd Dangote refinery |
Lekki, Lagos |
550,000 |
|
2 |
10,000 bpd OPAC refinery |
Delta State |
5,000 |
|
3 |
5,000 bpd Waltersmith Refinery |
Imo State |
4,500 |
|
4 |
2,500 bpd Duport Midstream |
Edo State |
2,000 |
|
5 |
1,500 bpd Edo Refinery |
Edo State |
1,000 |
|
6 |
11,000 bpd Aradel Refinery |
Rivers State |
7,000 |
|
7 |
60,000 bpd old Port Harcourt refinery |
Rivers State |
60,000 |
|
8 |
125,000 bpd Warri Refinery |
Delta State |
75,000 |
|
9 |
110,000 bpd Kaduna Refinery |
Kaduna State |
66,000 |
| TOTAL | 770,500 BBL |
The Dangote Refinery will receive the largest share of crude oil at 550,000 barrels per day, followed by the Warri Refinery with 75,000 barrels per day.
The Port Harcourt Refinery and Kaduna Refinery will receive 60,000 and 66,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Collectively, the nine refineries will process 770,500 barrels of crude oil daily, amounting to 23.8 million barrels per month.
Over a six-month period, this totals approximately 143 million barrels of crude oil for refining.
According to the NUPRC, the projected crude oil requirement of 770,500 barrels per day (bpd) for refineries represents approximately 37% of the forecasted average daily production of 2,066,940 bpd for the first half of 2025.
The NUPRC emphasized its commitment to leveraging the capacity of upstream operators to achieve a short-term production target of 2.5 million bpd.
This objective is supported by the Project One Million Barrels initiative, launched in October 2024, which has significantly enhanced Nigeria’s crude production capacity to meet both domestic demand and export requirements.
