The US debt prediction the Congressional Budget Office published in February 2026 is about as stark as these reports get. The nonpartisan scorekeeper projects total gross national debt will hit $64 trillion within a decade, with a trillion-dollar deficit currently at $1.9 trillion and climbing to $3.1 trillion by 2036. Right now, the national debt stands at $38.99 trillion — and the latest US debt prediction has the federal government borrowing an additional $26 trillion between now and 2036.
The US debt-to-GDP ratio, currently at 101%, is heading toward 120%, well past the postwar record of 106% from 1946. The Watcher.Guru Live US Debt Tracker below puts that growth curve in perspective — and BRICS nations are running their dollar exit harder than ever, with the CBO US debt projection giving them more ammunition with each update.
showing $39.003T current national debt and exponential growth post-2010
US Debt Prediction Soars With Trillion-Dollar Deficit and BRICS Dollar Exit
What the US Debt Prediction Actually Shows
The CBO US debt projection puts cumulative deficits at $24.4 trillion over the next ten years — averaging 6.1% of GDP per year, more than double the 50-year historical average of 3.8%. Interest payments alone will cross $1 trillion in 2026 and climb to $2.1 trillion by 2036. At that point, the federal government will spend more on debt service than it currently allocates to national defense, also a first in US history.
CBO Director Phillip Swagel stated:
“Our budget projections continue to indicate that the fiscal trajectory is not sustainable.”
On what drives the trillion-dollar deficit higher, Swagel also had this to say:
“Tax provisions including the permanent extension of provisions of the 2017 Tax Act increase deficits, as does increased spending on defense and homeland security. Other provisions of the 2025 reconciliation act, such as changes to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), reduce deficits.”
Also Read: India, China Hit $155B BRICS Trade Record, Imports Surge 43% in 2026
The Republican-backed reconciliation act adds $4.7 trillion to the ten-year US debt prediction through 2035. New tariffs will offset roughly $3 trillion, but that still leaves $1.4 trillion in additional borrowing compared to estimates from one year ago. The US debt-to-GDP ratio will also surpass the 1946 postwar record before 2030 and could reach 175% by 2056 under current law.
BRICS Sees Opportunity in the US Debt Prediction
The BRICS dollar exit has been picking up speed alongside every new CBO warning. China, India, and Brazil collectively shed $144.6 billion in US Treasuries over the past year. China alone cut its holdings by $75.5 billion — a 10% reduction — while India trimmed its exposure by 18% and Brazil by 16%.
ING, one of the world’s largest banks, warned in December 2025 that BRICS nations are:
“Quietly leaving the Treasury market.”
In October alone, those three countries cut their combined Treasury exposure by $28.8 billion in a single month. The latest US debt prediction from Washington keeps reinforcing the bloc’s central argument — a government running a trillion-dollar deficit annually and heading toward 120% debt-to-GDP makes for a less reliable anchor for global trade than it did a decade ago. Every time the CBO US debt projection gets revised, the US debt prediction gets a little harder to defend, and the BRICS dollar exit gets a little easier to justify.
